Kingwarz at 06:08, 7 November 2025

2025-11-07T06:08:33Z

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{{SHORTDESC:Explaining how predictions are made and analyzed on King Warz Charts}}
'''Predictions''' is a page section that documents weekly chart predictions on [[King Warz Charts]]. This section is included as a section on '''Week''' pages — especially all week pages '''after [[Week 125]]''' (when the latest chart formula and analyzer were introduced).

== Overview ==
Before the end of each chart week, predictions are created directly by '''[[User:Kingwarz|King Warz]]'''. Each prediction forecasts upcoming chart movements such as whether a song or album will '''rise''', '''reach''', '''remain''', '''debut''', or '''re-enter''' — with or without a specific rank. These lines are added manually under the Predictions section on weekly pages (the header may be written as either '''== Predictions ==''' or '''== [[Predictions]] ==''').

After the full chart data and tables are published for that week (the “Top 60 Song Charts” and “Top 20 Album Charts”), the automated script '''[[User:PredictionsBot|PredictionsBot]]''' is run. The bot reads the predictions, compares them with the finalized charts, and rewrites each line with a verdict ({{Accurate}} or {{Inaccurate}}) and an accuracy percentage.

== How PredictionsBot Works ==

# Parses both the song and album tables, reading TW (this week), LW (last week), and whether an entry is '''NEW''' (debut) or '''RE''' (re-entry).

# Locates the Predictions section (accepts both '''== Predictions ==''' and '''== [[Predictions]] ==''') and collects the bullet lines — even if they already contain templates.

# Re-analyzes every line and replaces it with a standardized verdict and message (always using '''double braces''' like <code>{{Accurate}}</code>/<code>{{Inaccurate}}</code>).

# Honors explicit chart hints in the sentence:

#: • If the text says '''album charts''', the bot matches '''only albums'''.
#: • If it says '''song charts''', the bot matches '''only songs'''.
#: • If no chart is specified, the bot attempts a sensible match and may infer album when the title is italicized.

# If nothing on the hinted chart matches the linked title, the bot marks the claim as '''did not chart on the song/album charts''' (or '''did not re-enter''').

PredictionsBot is always run '''after''' the weekly tables have been uploaded to ensure a proper comparison between the forecast and the actual results.

== Accepted Sentence Format ==
Each prediction must start with a bullet point (*) and follow a clear format so the bot can interpret it correctly. The title of the work must be a wiki link.

'''Example:''' As of October 30, I'm predicting that there is a 50% chance that [[Here All Night]] will rise to #1 on the song charts.

=== Basic Formatting Rules ===

* Each line must begin with <code>*</code>.
* The predicted title must be linked (e.g., <code>[[Breakin' Dishes]]</code> or <code>''[[Positions (album)|Positions]]''</code>).
* Specify the chart when needed by writing “'''song charts'''” or “'''album charts'''”. (If the title is italicized, the bot will also infer it’s an album.)
* Supported actions (exact or range/generic) include:
** '''rise to #X'''
** '''reach #X'''
** '''remain at #X''' / '''stay at #X'''
** '''debut at #X'''
** '''debut in the top X'''
** '''reach the top X'''
** '''remain in the top X'''
** '''debut on the charts''' (any position)
** '''re-enter/reenter at #X'''
** '''re-enter/reenter the charts''' (any position)
* OR-style predictions are allowed (e.g., “either [[Positions]] or [[Thank U, Next]] will reach #1”).
* A confidence percentage is optional (e.g., “75% chance”). If none is provided, it defaults to 100%.

== Confidence and Accuracy ==
If the prediction’s exact outcome does not occur, accuracy is calculated as: <code>Accuracy = 100 × (Target Position ÷ Actual Position)</code>

If the actual position equals or surpasses the target (e.g., predicting #1 and it hits #1), the accuracy is automatically 100%.

'''Examples:'''

* Predicted #1, actual #1 → 100%
* Predicted #1, actual #2 → 50%
* Predicted #1, actual #3 → 33%
* Predicted #1, actual #10 → 10%

=== Wording Rules ===

* If the outcome is '''worse''' than predicted, the bot uses “'''only reached #X'''”.
* If the outcome is '''better''' than predicted (e.g., predicted #10 but it reached #8), the bot omits “only” and notes it was better than predicted.
* For '''re-entry without a rank''': if it re-enters at any position, the prediction is accurate; if it does not re-enter, the bot says it '''did not re-enter'''.
* If the work is not present on the hinted chart at all, the bot says it '''did not chart on the song/album charts'''.
* The bot always emits proper double-brace templates (<code>{{…}}</code>) and normalizes display capitalization where needed.

== Example Prediction Lines ==
=== 1. Accurate Example ===
{{Accurate|Accurate: [[Breakin' Dishes]] rose to #1 on the song charts. This prediction is 100% accurate}}: As of October 23, 2025, I predict that there is a 75% chance that [[Breakin' Dishes]] will reach #1 on the song charts.

=== 2. Partially Accurate Example (under-performed) ===
{{Inaccurate|Inaccurate: The song only reached #3. This prediction was 33% accurate}}: As of October 23, 2025, I predict that there is a 75% chance that [[Bodyguard]] will reach #1 on the song charts.

=== 3. Better-Than-Predicted Example (no “only”) ===
{{Inaccurate|Inaccurate: The album reached #8 (better than predicted #10). This prediction though was 100% accurate}}: As of October 30, 2025, I'm predicting that ''[[The Bodyguard]]'' will 100% debut in the top 10 on the album charts.

=== 4. Debut-in-Top-X Example ===
{{Inaccurate|Inaccurate: The album only reached #11. This prediction was 91% accurate}}: As of October 30, 2025, I'm predicting that ''[[Thriller (album)|Thriller]]'' will debut in the top 10 on the album charts.

=== 5. Re-entry With Rank ===
{{Accurate|Accurate: [[Breakin' Dishes]] re-entered the song charts at #4. This prediction is 100% accurate}}: As of October 29, 2025, I predict that there is a 60% chance that [[Breakin' Dishes]] will re-enter the charts at #4.

=== 6. Re-entry Without Rank (any position counts) ===
{{Accurate|Accurate: ''[[Cowboy Carter]]'' re-entered the album charts. This prediction is 100% accurate}}: As of October 30, I'm predicting that there is an 85% chance that ''[[Cowboy Carter]]'' will re-enter the album charts.

=== 7. Did-Not-Chart / Did-Not-Re-enter Examples ===
{{Inaccurate|Inaccurate: ''[[The Bigma]]'' did not chart on the album charts. This prediction was 0% accurate}}: As of October 30, I'm predicting that ''[[The Bigma]]'' will 100% debut in the top 10 on the album charts.
{{Inaccurate|Inaccurate: [[X-Girlfriend]] did not re-enter the song charts. This prediction was 0% accurate}}: As of November 2, I'm predicting that there is a 30% chance that [[X-Girlfriend]] will re-enter the song charts.

== Additional Notes ==

* Predictions sections appear on all weekly pages beginning after [[Week 125]].
* Album titles are italicized for consistency; the bot normalizes capitalization in verdict messages.
* The bot will re-analyze and replace older verdicts if the prediction sentence is edited.
* When the sentence specifies “album charts” or “song charts”, the bot restricts matching to that chart only; otherwise it infers the best match.

== See Also ==

* [[User:PredictionsBot]]
* [[Week 125]]
* [[King Warz Charts]]

Predictions - Revision history

Kingwarz at 06:08, 7 November 2025