Predictions

Predictions is a page section that documents weekly chart predictions on King Warz Charts. This section is included as a section on Week pages — especially all week pages after Week 125 (when the latest chart formula and analyzer were introduced).

Overview

Before the end of each chart week, predictions are created directly by King Warz. Each prediction forecasts upcoming chart movements such as whether a song or album will rise, reach, remain, debut, or re-enter — with or without a specific rank. These lines are added manually under the Predictions section on weekly pages (the header may be written as either == Predictions == or == Predictions ==).

After the full chart data and tables are published for that week (the “Top 60 Song Charts” and “Top 20 Album Charts”), the automated script PredictionsBot is run. The bot reads the predictions, compares them with the finalized charts, and rewrites each line with a verdict ( Accurate or Inaccurate) and an accuracy percentage.

How PredictionsBot Works

Parses both the song and album tables, reading TW (this week), LW (last week), and whether an entry is NEW (debut) or RE (re-entry).

Locates the Predictions section (accepts both == Predictions == and == Predictions ==) and collects the bullet lines — even if they already contain templates.

Re-analyzes every line and replaces it with a standardized verdict and message (always using double braces like Accurate/ Inaccurate).

Honors explicit chart hints in the sentence:

• If the text says album charts, the bot matches only albums.

• If it says song charts, the bot matches only songs.

• If no chart is specified, the bot attempts a sensible match and may infer album when the title is italicized.

If nothing on the hinted chart matches the linked title, the bot marks the claim as did not chart on the song/album charts (or did not re-enter).

PredictionsBot is always run after the weekly tables have been uploaded to ensure a proper comparison between the forecast and the actual results.

Accepted Sentence Format

Each prediction must start with a bullet point (*) and follow a clear format so the bot can interpret it correctly. The title of the work must be a wiki link.

Example: As of October 30, I'm predicting that there is a 50% chance that Here All Night will rise to #1 on the song charts.

Basic Formatting Rules

Each line must begin with *.
The predicted title must be linked (e.g., Breakin' Dishes or Positions).
Specify the chart when needed by writing “song charts” or “album charts”. (If the title is italicized, the bot will also infer it’s an album.)
Supported actions (exact or range/generic) include:

 ** rise to #X
 ** reach #X
 ** remain at #X / stay at #X
 ** debut at #X
 ** debut in the top X
 ** reach the top X
 ** remain in the top X
 ** debut on the charts (any position)
 ** re-enter/reenter at #X
 ** re-enter/reenter the charts (any position)

OR-style predictions are allowed (e.g., “either Positions or Thank U, Next will reach #1”).
A confidence percentage is optional (e.g., “75% chance”). If none is provided, it defaults to 100%.

Confidence and Accuracy

If the prediction’s exact outcome does not occur, accuracy is calculated as: Accuracy = 100 × (Target Position ÷ Actual Position)

If the actual position equals or surpasses the target (e.g., predicting #1 and it hits #1), the accuracy is automatically 100%.

Examples:

Predicted #1, actual #1 → 100%
Predicted #1, actual #2 → 50%
Predicted #1, actual #3 → 33%
Predicted #1, actual #10 → 10%

Wording Rules

If the outcome is worse than predicted, the bot uses “only reached #X”.
If the outcome is better than predicted (e.g., predicted #10 but it reached #8), the bot omits “only” and notes it was better than predicted.
For re-entry without a rank: if it re-enters at any position, the prediction is accurate; if it does not re-enter, the bot says it did not re-enter.
If the work is not present on the hinted chart at all, the bot says it did not chart on the song/album charts.
The bot always emits proper double-brace templates (Template:…) and normalizes display capitalization where needed.

Example Prediction Lines

1. Accurate Example

Accurate: Breakin' Dishes rose to #1 on the song charts. This prediction is 100% accurate: As of October 23, 2025, I predict that there is a 75% chance that Breakin' Dishes will reach #1 on the song charts.

2. Partially Accurate Example (under-performed)

Inaccurate: The song only reached #3. This prediction was 33% accurate: As of October 23, 2025, I predict that there is a 75% chance that Bodyguard will reach #1 on the song charts.

3. Better-Than-Predicted Example (no “only”)

Inaccurate: The album reached #8 (better than predicted #10). This prediction though was 100% accurate: As of October 30, 2025, I'm predicting that The Bodyguard will 100% debut in the top 10 on the album charts.

4. Debut-in-Top-X Example

Inaccurate: The album only reached #11. This prediction was 91% accurate: As of October 30, 2025, I'm predicting that Thriller will debut in the top 10 on the album charts.

5. Re-entry With Rank

Accurate: Breakin' Dishes re-entered the song charts at #4. This prediction is 100% accurate: As of October 29, 2025, I predict that there is a 60% chance that Breakin' Dishes will re-enter the charts at #4.

6. Re-entry Without Rank (any position counts)

Accurate: Cowboy Carter re-entered the album charts. This prediction is 100% accurate: As of October 30, I'm predicting that there is an 85% chance that Cowboy Carter will re-enter the album charts.

7. Did-Not-Chart / Did-Not-Re-enter Examples

Inaccurate: The Bigma did not chart on the album charts. This prediction was 0% accurate: As of October 30, I'm predicting that The Bigma will 100% debut in the top 10 on the album charts. Inaccurate: X-Girlfriend did not re-enter the song charts. This prediction was 0% accurate: As of November 2, I'm predicting that there is a 30% chance that X-Girlfriend will re-enter the song charts.

Additional Notes

Predictions sections appear on all weekly pages beginning after Week 125.
Album titles are italicized for consistency; the bot normalizes capitalization in verdict messages.
The bot will re-analyze and replace older verdicts if the prediction sentence is edited.
When the sentence specifies “album charts” or “song charts”, the bot restricts matching to that chart only; otherwise it infers the best match.